The cheap-suburb boom has run. The next decade's value looks to be in the established inner-west and middle ring, away from the big new land releases.
Adelaide's cheapest suburbs more than doubled in five years, and Adelaide's own data shows that past winners did not keep winning. The best-supported signals for the long term are location, land share, lagging neighbours and low new supply. Seven suburbs score well on both our weighted scorecard and the relative-value screen: Torrensville, North Plympton, Greenacres, Birkenhead, Gilles Plains, Ferryden Park and Clovelly Park.
Partly. No measure predicts a single suburb reliably. No commercial forecaster (DSR Data, Hotspotting, HtAG, Microburbs, PropTrack) has an independent check of its hit rate. Microburbs' own back-test gets the direction right 65.4% of the time, below the 75% you would get by always guessing "up". Even so, some measures have research behind them.
| Measure | What the evidence says | Horizon | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Location: CBD, coast, jobs | RBA research 2011-03: in Adelaide, each 10 km from the CBD costs about 0.23 pp a year, and waterfront adds 0.38 pp. The Adelaide fit is weak, so treat it as a tilt. | Long | 15 |
| Land share | Houses beat apartments by about 1.2 pp a year nationally (RBA). Land appreciates; buildings depreciate. | Long | 15 |
| Relative value (lagging neighbours) | Low-growth suburbs beat high-growth suburbs by 3.0 pp a year over the next four years, in every quarter from 2008 to 2021 (Microburbs, vendor test). Adelaide's −0.46 rotation (section 3) supports it. | Medium | 12 |
| New supply pipeline | Heavy-supply suburbs underperform; in Adelaide by 0.84 pp a year (vendor test, p = 0.001). | Medium–long | 12 |
| Income growth, gentrification | A UNSW model predicted Sydney gentrification with about 87% accuracy. SEIFA change is a usable public proxy. | Medium | 10 |
| Rent growth, vacancy | A leading signal over months to a year. | Short | 8 |
| Stock and days on market | Under 30 days on market was followed by +11.8% over the next year; over 90 days, −2.3% (HtAG) snippet. No free suburb data for Adelaide yet. | Short | 8* |
| Committed rail within 800 m | Sydney: +12 to 15% near heavy rail once building starts snippet. No Adelaide line is funded. | Medium | 8* |
| Owner-occupier share | Stability and renovation spending. | Long | 6 |
| Upzoning potential | Zones that allow townhouses or subdivision add option value to land. | Long | 6 |
* No suburb data yet, so these weights are left out of v0.1 scores and the remaining weights are rescaled. Left out of the weighting altogether: population growth (correlation +0.04 with suburb growth, HtAG snippet, because supply follows people), price-to-income and price-to-rent (they don't revert in Australian data, RBA 2014-06), auction clearance (Adelaide mostly sells by private treaty) and school zones (already priced in).
Metro Adelaide median house price (blue) and unit median (orange). Filled points are Valuer-General medians. Open points are estimates scaled from the ABS house price index. The 2026 house point ($950,000, Sep qtr) is a search snippet.
On the ABS house index, houses grew about 4.5% a year from 2006 to 2016, then about 6.9% a year from 2016 to 2021, then much faster. The metro median went from $670,000 in December 2022 to $925,000 in December 2025. Units lagged houses for 15 years, then caught up: up 46% from 2022 to 2025 against 38% for houses. CBD units grew only 21% over the same three years.
House median growth by council, December quarter 2022 to December quarter 2025 (Valuer-General via REISA). Metro Adelaide in orange. Single-quarter medians are noisy for small councils (Walkerville especially).
Suburb medians are sales-weighted averages of quarterly Valuer-General medians. They read 10 to 14% above the official figure, so use them for growth, not price. Suburbs with fewer than 20 sales a year are left out of rankings. Unit growth by suburb is not available from free government data.
Investor read (our judgement, general information only). Falling prices, more listings and very tight rents give buyers more room to negotiate than at the peak, while rental demand holds up. The new negative gearing rule makes established houses less attractive to new investors than before. That may soften investor demand for older stock, which is where the land value is. This is not a measured effect and not a recommendation to buy.
The Greater Adelaide Regional Plan (March 2025) maps about 315,000 homes and 254,000 jobs over 30 years. Most of the change is new supply on the fringe.
| Project | Suburbs | Stage and timing | Likely price effect (opinion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concordia growth area | Concordia, Gawler East, Hewett, Evanston | Rezoned; 10,000 to 12,000 homes over about 30 years | Caps nearby house growth |
| Dry Creek salt fields | Dry Creek, Mawson Lakes, Parafield Gardens, Salisbury South | Rezoning underway; land division from about 2027; 15,000+ homes | Supply drag |
| Riverlea and Two Wells | Buckland Park, Riverlea Park, Two Wells | Under construction; about 12,000 homes snippet | Supply drag |
| Fringe boundary change (May 2025) | Roseworthy, Two Wells, Murray Bridge, Victor Harbor, Goolwa | Passed; about 61,000 lots | Long-run cap on fringe growth |
| Port Stanvac "South Beach" | Lonsdale, Hallett Cove, O'Sullivan Beach, Christies Beach | Rezoned 27 Jul 2026; 3,600 homes; residents 2029 | New coastal supply in the south |
| North-South Corridor, Torrens to Darlington | Clovelly Park, Edwardstown, Glandore, Kurralta Park, Ashford, Mile End, Thebarton | Under construction; $15.4bn; finishes 2031; 524 properties demolished | Disruption to 2031, then reconnected streets gain |
| Southwark Grounds (old West End Brewery) | Thebarton, Mile End, Torrensville | Approved May 2026 (in force 28 May); about 1,700 homes, raised from 1,300 | New amenity; unit supply |
| New Women's and Children's Hospital | Thebarton, Mile End, Hindmarsh, Bowden | Under construction; $3.2bn; 2031 (dates vary by source) | Jobs and amenity uplift |
| Osborne submarine yard (AUKUS) | LeFevre Peninsula, Port Adelaide, Birkenhead, Semaphore, Largs | Construction from Sep 2026; $8.5bn; about 1,100 workers on site | Long-run jobs uplift for the Port |
| Mount Barker package | Mount Barker, Littlehampton, Nairne | $200m including a $96m high school; heavy estate supply | Amenity improves, supply heavy |
| Rail extensions (Two Wells, Roseworthy, Aldinga) | Northern plains, south coast | Corridors reserved or studied only, no funding | No effect until funded |
Full list of 30 items with sources: agent-reports/03-development-pipeline.csv. Government planning pages (PlanSA, the Department for Infrastructure and Transport, the Department for Housing and Urban Development) refused automated requests. Dwelling counts not marked are from news releases and Renewal SA.
Named most often (2025–26): Port Adelaide (4 independent sources), Klemzig (3), Aldinga Beach and the Onkaparinga coast (3), then Golden Grove, Morphett Vale, Munno Para West and Prospect (2 each). Hotspotting's June 2026 index put six Greater Adelaide councils in Australia's top ten for supply tightness: Onkaparinga, Mitcham, Marion, Tea Tree Gully, Campbelltown and Port Adelaide Enfield.
| Tip list | Tipped suburbs grew | Typical suburb grew |
|---|---|---|
| Hotspotting, Feb 2021 | +133% | +101% |
| Savings.com.au, Dec 2021 | +47% | +63% |
| realestate.com.au Hot 100, 2023 | +51% | +53% |
| Toop+Toop / DSR Data "undervalued", 2023 | +38% | +46% |
| Toop+Toop / DSR Data "overvalued", 2023 | +49% | +46% |
Look-back on Valuer-General house medians to the June and September quarters 2026. Only Hotspotting's 2021 buy list beat the market, through cheap Playford houses bought early in the cycle. Toop+Toop's "overvalued" list also beat the typical suburb, so that call failed. Commentary carries no weight in the scorecard.
Where they disagree: outer-north prices (one buyer's agent sees falls of 4 to 5%, another still sees multiple offers under $1m), houses against units, and the $2m to $3m eastern market (one agent tips falls of up to 15%). No named-source rumours about supermarkets or stations were found.
Each suburb with 20 or more house sales in the 12 months to September 2026 is scored 0 to 100 on the section 2 measures that have suburb data. Each measure is a percentile among the 263 suburbs, and the weighted average is the score. Supply is measured at council level, which lifts whole councils with few approvals (Mitcham, Burnside). This is an estimate to shortlist suburbs, not a forecast.
| Rank | Suburb | Council | Score | Median (12 mths) | 5-yr growth | 10-yr growth | km to CBD | Gross yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clapham | Mitcham | 72 | $1,378,870 | 66% | 147% | 7 | 2.2% |
| 2 | Vale Park | Walkerville | 67 | $1,533,146 | 81% | 117% | 5 | 2.4% |
| 3 | Panorama | Mitcham | 67 | $1,330,721 | 87% | 127% | 8 | 2.7% |
| 4 | Glenalta | Mitcham | 66 | $1,081,407 | 58% | 124% | 10 | 3.3% |
| 5 | Valley View | Tea Tree Gully | 66 | $923,359 | 97% | 140% | 11 | 3.7% |
| 6 | Dernancourt | Tea Tree Gully | 65 | $1,061,522 | 90% | 142% | 10 | 3.3% |
| 7 | Ingle Farm | Salisbury | 64 | $861,689 | 110% | 167% | 12 | 3.7% |
| 8 | Clarence Gardens | Mitcham | 64 | $1,433,665 | 107% | 140% | 5 | 2.6% |
| 9 | Crafers West | Mitcham | 64 | $1,255,571 | 75% | 119% | 10 | 4.1% |
| 10 | Redwood Park | Tea Tree Gully | 64 | $869,033 | 80% | 137% | 16 | 3.7% |
| 11 | Hillcrest | Port Adelaide Enfield | 63 | $956,151 | 86% | 122% | 8 | 3.8% |
| 12 | Netley | West Torrens | 63 | $1,201,200 | 87% | 135% | 5 | 2.8% |
| 13 | Holden Hill | Tea Tree Gully | 63 | $899,625 | 95% | 143% | 11 | 3.8% |
| 14 | Glen Osmond | Burnside | 63 | $1,991,852 | 59% | 106% | 6 | 2.4% |
| 15 | North Plympton | West Torrens | 62 | $1,136,126 | 76% | 134% | 5 | 3.1% |
| 16 | Belair | Mitcham | 61 | $1,323,962 | 67% | 133% | 10 | 3.5% |
| 17 | Greenacres | Port Adelaide Enfield | 61 | $971,849 | 75% | 121% | 7 | 3.7% |
| 18 | Birkenhead | Port Adelaide Enfield | 61 | $892,121 | 62% | 131% | 14 | 3.4% |
| 19 | West Croydon | Charles Sturt | 61 | $1,229,036 | 67% | 128% | 6 | 2.6% |
| 20 | Reynella | Onkaparinga | 61 | $837,601 | 102% | 163% | 20 | 3.8% |
| 21 | Beverley | Charles Sturt | 61 | $1,028,000 | 78% | 113% | 6 | 3.4% |
| 22 | Hawthorndene | Mitcham | 61 | $1,149,703 | 73% | 123% | 11 | 3.4% |
| 23 | Beaumont | Burnside | 60 | $1,909,858 | 42% | 109% | 6 | 2.5% |
| 24 | Croydon | Charles Sturt | 60 | $1,377,448 | 70% | 173% | 5 | 2.4% |
| 25 | Torrensville | West Torrens | 60 | $1,194,406 | 62% | 104% | 4 | 2.9% |
A low score partly reflects missing data for some suburbs. Riverlea Park was scored on only half the weight (no growth history).
| Rank | Suburb | Council | Score | Median (12 mths) | 5-yr growth | 10-yr growth | km to CBD | Gross yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | Smithfield | Playford | 36 | $678,311 | 149% | 141% | 28 | 4.0% |
| 255 | Elizabeth East | Playford | 36 | $694,941 | 170% | 228% | 23 | 3.9% |
| 256 | Semaphore Park | Charles Sturt | 36 | $1,252,426 | 105% | 152% | 12 | 2.7% |
| 257 | Munno Para Downs | Playford | 35 | $746,786 | n/a | n/a | 32 | 4.0% |
| 258 | Gawler South | Gawler | 34 | $820,739 | 111% | 157% | 38 | 3.4% |
| 259 | Elizabeth Grove | Playford | 33 | $678,958 | 140% | 203% | 22 | 3.8% |
| 260 | North Adelaide | Adelaide | 31 | $2,398,824 | 64% | 153% | 2 | 1.7% |
| 261 | Evanston | Gawler | 30 | $698,158 | 121% | 127% | 36 | 3.8% |
| 262 | Elizabeth South | Playford | 29 | $661,406 | 157% | 218% | 21 | 3.8% |
| 263 | Riverlea Park | Playford | 18 | $912,156 | n/a | n/a | 31 | 4.0% |
Medians are the sales-weighted 12-month figure (reads about 10 to 14% above the official median). Gross yield = Q2 2026 bond rent ÷ house median, an estimate. Full table: data/scorecard.csv.
A separate screen fitted price against distance to the CBD and coast across 322 suburbs, then compared each suburb with its neighbours. Inner-west and middle-ring suburbs 3 to 12 km out price 20 to 35% below what their location predicts.
| Suburb | Scorecard rank | Why it screens well | Main risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torrensville | 25 | 0.73 of the price line; neighbours grew 30 points more in five years; next to Southwark Grounds and the new hospital | Corridor works to 2031; character zoning limits infill |
| North Plympton | 15 | Below the line, near the coast and CBD | Airport flight path; check flood overlays |
| Greenacres | 17 | Mostly zoned to allow townhouses; 43 sales | Industrial strip along Grand Junction Road |
| Birkenhead | 18 | Port and Osborne jobs; Port Adelaide renewal | Coastal flood exposure; industrial interface |
| Gilles Plains | 31 | Below its neighbours; infill zoning | 14% public housing; townhouse supply |
| Ferryden Park | 49 | Housing Trust renewal; infill zoning | Social-housing share; arterial traffic |
| Clovelly Park | 71 | Next to Tonsley jobs; mostly infill zoning | Tonsley townhouse supply; corridor works |
Also on the screen, with fewer sales or a lower score: Mile End (deepest discount of any established suburb, rank 111), Brompton, Edwardstown, Morphettville, Queenstown, Mansfield Park and Camden Park. Cowandilla, Renown Park, Marleston and Woodville Gardens have only 12 to 15 sales a year.
Units (lower confidence; no suburb unit data): Plympton, Ascot Park, Magill and Glenside are named by Hotspotting. The screen also suggests villa units in Mile End. Inner-west and CBD units face the most competing supply from Southwark Grounds, the proposed Port Road height changes (Inner West Code Amendment, not yet consulted) and the $500m apartment fast-track fund.
Peri-urban: Mount Barker houses ($873,500, Mar qtr 2026) are 20 to 45% below its Hills neighbours. Murray Bridge ($625,500, about 4.2% yield) is the cheapest option in the region. Both have heavy estate supply.
Method. Six research briefs ran in parallel: predictive measures, growth history, development pipeline, current fundamentals, news and commentary, and a relative-value screen. Each figure is tagged verified (read on the opened page or file) or snippet (search result only). The scorecard combines the published data with fixed weights. This page is general information, not financial or tax advice.
Limits.
Main sources.
Full source lists are in each agent report.